EXAMINING THE DYNAMICS OF CASHEW KERNEL EXPORTS IN TANZANIA: A TIME SERIES FORECASTING APPROACH
Keywords:
ARIMA, Cashew Kernel, Exports, ForecastingAbstract
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the future outlook for cashew kernel exports from Tanzania using an ARIMA (1,1,1) model based on 59 years of time series data. The study highlights the underutilization of Tanzania’s cashew processing capacity and its impact on export growth, with forecasts showing minimal increases in kernel exports through 2033. The paper underscores the need for strategic planning and investment in processing infrastructure, technology, and capacity building to enhance the cashew industry's value addition and economic gains. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and industry stakeholders to formulate effective strategies and policies. The use of robust statistical modeling provides a reliable forecast, making this study a significant contribution to the field of agricultural economics and industrial development. The recommendations for enhancing the cashew value chain are particularly pertinent for maximizing Tanzania's economic benefits from its substantial raw cashew nut production.
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Copyright (c) 2024 Alfred Nkubito Ngendahayo, Jayavantha Nayak (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
